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New Yorkers will discover who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has vowed to deploy military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's power moves, takes in the near future.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to Americans' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, should Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A NYC rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on attacking the candidate directly. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in last year, few had known him, and in reality, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has encountered difficulties in recent days, after footage emerged suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd