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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It frequently functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the largest resurgence receives the award. In reality, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or simply the biggest shock.

However the latest race is fundamentally unique. The group of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning division champions fading and recent also-rans rising together. In an normal season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's facing several other elite candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to spin big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current is not a typical year!

The area where his case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an early strong start, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still